Colloquium: Yaren Cürgül (C&O)

Accurate yield estimations are crucial for assessing the financial viability of wind farms in early-phase design. Due to the long timeline between seabed lease auctions and decommissioning, uncertainties in wind farm properties and atmospheric conditions arise. Wake steering, a wind farm flow control technology, has been shown to significantly impact annual energy production (AEP) in field experiments. However, the accuracy of AEP uplift estimates during the early design phase is unclear. This article addresses this by propagating uncertainties in atmospheric conditions, such as turbulence intensity, wind shear, and air density, to quantify statistical uncertainty in AEP uplift estimations. A sensitivity analysis ranks the significance of these uncertainties. For the OffshoreWindpark Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ), wake steering remains beneficial for both Gaussian-curl hybrid (GCH) and cumulative curl (CC) models. The primary driver of AEP uplift variation is the wind rose, with other parameters having minimal effects.

Supervisor: Marilena Pavel